The EV Condundrum

As the figures for 2024 came in from the SMMT it seems there were reasons to be cheerful and also reasons to be puzzled.

Reasons to be cheerful? New car registrations were up on 2023 and many brands so their sales increase. EV registrations were up as well. By EV - I'll count battery EVs, hybrids and petrol hybrids. Some wonderful vehicles from Mercedes and Volvo to name but two. So why puzzled? Although EV registrations were up the main reason for this was fleet sales. Private buyers were not as convinced. Only 1 in 10 cars sold to private buyers were EVs. Why are private buyers so reluctant to buy EVs? This is the question many are asking and I have a few theories on this.

Firstly, EVs are still in a relative infancy when you think about them. If you go back 100 years - how many cars were bought in 1924 by private buyers compared to several decades later? As manufacturing processes evolved and supply of cars increased the prices fell. More people owned combustion engine cars. I think this will be true for EVs, we are at the start of a new era of motoring and it will need to develop.

Another reason, closely linked to the point above, is cost. Prices of EVs were expensive. They continue to come down all the time and with many new EVs coming from the Chinese markets they can compete financially with the combustion counterparts. Another factor in this, is the reduction in government grants for purchasing an EV. This may have been part of some people's decision making process.

Linked to this is the perception regarding value for money. The first mainstream EVs that came out were oddly shaped and didn't have many features. Then came good looking, well specced EVs at a price. Now, affordable well equipped EVs are here and they are going to compete. The Dacia Spring, Citroen eC3 and Ora all offer low cost, high quality products. Is private buyer perception still impacting on sales? Are private buyers still wary about range? About where to charge EVs? Service costs? Value for money from an EV? I believe perception is changing but it will take time. EVs have much greater range and charge points can be located in most towns. This will only increase.

To use a sporting phrase, I wonder if private EVs are in some sort of a "transition phase". There will have been buyers, early adopters if you like, that will have taken the plunge straight away. These have their EVs and may not be looking to change just yet. Others may simply not have been able to afford to purchase an EV even with government grants. They are, or were, rather expensive. In fact, you used to be able to buy fully loaded, top spec combustion engined cars for cheaper than an average spec EV. That, however, is changing. Look at the table and you can see the MG4, Skoda Enyaq and Hyundai Kona are all showing strong sales. This looks set to get better with Citroen's eC3 and the Dacia Spring. EVs therefore are becoming more mainstream in terms of price point. More people are now able to consider an EV from an affordability perspective.

The used car market may have also played a part in tempting private buyers away from new. There are some wonderful EVs out there in the second hand car market and more are coming in to the market all the time as fleets pass on their stock in to the used car market. Jaguar i-Pace for Ford Fiesta money - that's a yes please from me.

So, in conclusion I think this is a hiatus for EV private buyer sales. I do think uptake will improve. However, I am of the opinion that 2025 may see a plateau in EV registrations with private buyers but as more are released, such as the Renault 5, 2026 may be the year when this begins to change. I believe we are in an EV evolution not a revolution.